The Tunnel Concept – Decision Making Part III

Although a funnel is the logical visual choice when decisions must be made from multiple options, such as recruiting or searching for a job, the quote that we see the “light at the end of the tunnel” implies that we are nearing the end of the journey and success. In situations where it is possible to analyze critical alternatives before starting out, the tunnel concept is the epitome of rapid succession from start to finish. This is not to say that there will not be decisions along the way, but the most critical choice is to commit to entering the tunnel. Selecting the correct direction and evaluating all of the alternatives before entering makes a tunnel the ideal concept to employ in almost any decision making exercise. Once the direction is planned and the journey begins, the only alternative to success is giving up and backing out of the tunnel. Under some circumstances, a more urgent and final tunnel analogy becomes a straight and unstoppable one-shot move like parachuting out of an airplane. There is one opportunity to succeed that must allow for gravity and windage to land properly. Most business and personal decisions rely on safe rather than risky choices, but sometimes it takes a leap of faith to go beyond the fear of failure.

This fact is always true: The current position on the map must be known to make informed decisions on next steps.

• Formulate a Clear Definition of Success – This logical beginning is not as easy as it appears to be at first glance. This is more than a written goal or objective debated by some executive committee in smoke filled corner offices on the top floor. This is the job of visionaries. They must visualize the outcome… actually “see” it in their minds… and then “seeing” the path to accomplishing that outcome and executing the plan. Think… see… do! Maxwell Maltz penned in his classic self-help book Psycho-Cybernetics that we need to “Study the situation thoroughly, go over in your imagination the various courses of action possible to you and the consequences which can and may follow from each course. Pick out the course which gives the most promise and go ahead.” The more common sense reason to know the definition of success is the classic adage, “If you don’t know where you are going, you won’t know when you get there.” You also won’t know if you failed.
• Determining the Knowns and the Unknowns – Fact collection for any decision begins with an exploration of all the things that are relevant about the situation at hand. An old military saying that has been around for longer than anyone can remember, and quoted by Donald Rumsfeld when he was Secretary of Defense, just about sums it up: “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know that we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. These are things we don’t know we don’t know.” Entering the tunnel blindly offers no guarantee that it is the right choice and often we can’t even peer into the darkness and conjure up images of danger even with our best imagination. We must ask what we know, what we don’t know, and put our brains to work on everything else.
• Risk Assessment – An essential part of entering any decision tunnel is to assess the risks involved and a risk management plan is an integral part of any study. Obviously, to manage something there has to be a complete analysis, so the known and known unknown risks for any project need to be evaluated and any corrective action added to that decision. If we are lucky enough to have risks with elements that are quantifiable, there is an ability to calculate the probability of that risk happening and making a decision as to the acceptability of that risk. A risk assessment may also involve a go/no-go crunch point to determine when success is jeopardized to the point that it is time to turn back.
• Plan To Have an Exit Strategy – We make a decision to enter the tunnel with a clear destination in mind, we have considered the knowns and evaluated the risks, but there is not always a straight shot to the exit at the end of the tunnel. Such plans will have different forms depending on the tunnel, but alternative exit ideas or strategic withdrawal plans are a reality when barriers are encountered on the way. Remember those unknown unknowns? Removing barriers or overcoming them requires instant decision-making and any plan for them in advance will result in faster and more accurate choices when they occur. If barriers to the planned exit or objective are insurmountable, backing out and starting over may be the only choice.
• Evaluation of Results – At the end of the tunnel or other outcome, the final results must be assessed and perhaps new directions need to be planned. One decision usually leads to either an improvement of the process or formulation of a new objective. Apply 20/20 hindsight and look for new tunnels.

This series of articles began with the premise that we use these physical representations to help our brain focus on an easily understood analogy about a decision, but while doing so we must keep in mind that it is just a thinking tool and not a definition of absolute thoughts. Our brain cannot be allowed to lapse into simple “if this” : “then that” logic where none exists.

Read also:

• A Tunnel Tutorial for Job Seekers, by Tom Bolt, Make HR Happen, October 26, 2012

 
Image credit: rolffimages / 123RF Stock Photo (modified)